Silver dropped 50 daily average rebound after short-term risk downside


International Spot silver on Thursday (August 18th) sub city rose more than 1% in early trading, and hit $19.94 daily high. Wednesday (August 17th) because of the Fed's July meeting contents interpreted as dovish, the price of silver from New York time low of 19.37 dollar quickly rebounded to $19.80, but ultimately lower at $19.70. Thursday night, investors still need to pay attention to a series of economic data, such as the initial U.S. request, as well as the New York Fed chairman Dudley speech. [August 18th gold investment morning paper]

Technically, on the daily level, the overnight silver price was trying to drop the 50 day moving average of $19.30, above the 20 day moving average of $20 has been translated into resistance, the overall is not out of the 19.20-21.13 U. S. dollar shock range. Indicators, MACD green energy column shrink slightly, double Sicha down, KDJ indicators of low volatility, medium-term risk biased upward. At the 4H level, indicators suggest that short-term silver prices will remain volatile, unless the price of silver is above the 20 day moving average.

The initial resistance to silver is at $20 and $20.30, with further resistance at 20.50, 20.80, 21, 21.30, 21.58, 22, and $22.20. On the downside, initial support of $19.50 and $19.37 was further supported at 19.30, 19, 18.77, 18.51, 18.20, and $18.

Operating strategy, on Thursday suggested using silver prices rebounded to 20.05-20.12 dollar opportunity cautious, Qingcang short rallies, stop set above $20.20, a target of $19.85-19.76, activists see below $19.60.

Fundamentals positive factors:

1. of the Fed's July meeting released on Wednesday showed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members of the U.S. economic outlook and employment market overall optimism, but many members did not approve of the short-term interest rate, for fear of future employment growth slowed.

2. minutes after the release, the federal funds rate market showed interest rates in September dropped from 24% to 18%, December probability dropped from 58.4% to 54.2%.

3., Saint Louis Fed chairman Brad (James Bullard) Wednesday insisted that in the future for a long time only raise interest rates once, and need not be too fast.

4. the U.S. Labor Department on Tuesday (August 16th) released data show that the rate of increase of 0% CPI month U.S. seasonally adjusted 7, the lowest increase since February this year, due to the price of gasoline recorded its first decline in five months, that the potential inflation pressures moderate, which could further weaken the prospects of the Fed's interest rate during the year.

Fundamentals bearish factors:

1., the Federal Reserve, "three figures", New York Fed chairman Dudley said in an interview on Tuesday, "we are gradually approaching the rate hike point.". It is possible to raise interest rates in September. Dudley has FOMC permanent voting rights, and he is also seen as Fed officials with Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen's view.

2. Atlanta Fed chairman Lockhart (Dennis Lockhart) said Tuesday that the U.S. economy is strong enough to raise interest rates at least once before the end of the year, and perhaps even two.

3. housing starts rose 2.1% in July, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1 million 200 thousand, the highest since February, according to data released on Tuesday by the US Department of commerce.